April 2020

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April 2020


Tower to White Swan, “What is your ETA?”

There are Black Swans (most often defined as an anomaly, an unexpected event, with potential negative consequences: we are experiencing that with covid-19!) and there are White Swans, but what about Grey Swans? The kind that might indicate that the period of Black Swan surprise is ending and a White Swan, a return to normal, is on its way.

Perhaps the signal for it to descend to an approach altitude might be sent because of the result from the FDA’s recent approval of physicians employing the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in treating covid-19. Maybe it will be with the announcement that the beleaguered drug industry has discovered, and is ready to produce in huge quantities, a vaccine that prevents coronavirus covid-19.

Want our prediction? They will all happen. The question is when. When will this apocalyptic, media exacerbated, panic caused by an invisible enemy fade out? That we can’t predict, but know—absolutely know—that an effective treatment and a vaccine will be found.

It is so very like 1950 and the polio scare. Until Dr. Salk discovered the vaccine in 1955, we, especially our parents, were under constant concern and stress for fear we would get polio. No movies, no parties, crowds had to be avoided. Temperatures were regularly taken, relatives didn’t come to visit. However, what we did not have was the 24/7 media constant blare and drumming about how many were diagnosed, how many died, how there was no cure, no preventive. Nor did we have politicians playing games with lives in order to gain some irrelevant advantage.

A different era, different values, an almost immobilizing fear. Then Dr. Jonas Salk came to the rescue and the white swan flew back in.

Yes, we will survive. We have done it before. We will do it again. With God’s will.

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Next column: May 2020